Introduction:In 2024, Brazil's São Paulo state was hit by the strongest storm since 1995, causing not only an enormous economic loss of 1.65 billion Brazilian reais but also directly impacting coffee crops that were in their flowering stage. Meanwhile, the main producing region, Minas Gerais, has been experiencing persistent drought, leading to a significant downward revision of yield forecasts. This article delves into how extreme weather is affecting Brazil’s coffee supply chain and provides practical reference data on regional climates and yields.
Recently, Brazil’s São Paulo state was struck by the most severe storm since 1995, with wind speeds soaring to 107.6 kilometers per hour, triggering widespread power outages and severe economic losses totaling 1.65 billion reais. This extreme weather not only severely damaged the local power grid and infrastructure but also inflicted noticeable harm on coffee trees that were at a critical flowering stage of the new season, further affecting both coffee yield and quality.
According to statistics, the storm resulted in at least seven fatalities and left more than 3.1 million households and businesses without electricity. Although power has gradually been restored in most areas, around 36,000 remain without electricity, and repair work is ongoing. Enel SP, the state’s national electricity company, noted that the economic losses from this disaster have yet to fully reflect the indirect costs arising from business operation disruptions.
As Brazil’s economic hub, São Paulo state hosts numerous heavy industries and civilian sectors, including steel, automobile manufacturing, electronic equipment, food processing, and textiles. The large-scale power outage caused most enterprises to face issues such as production halts, inventory buildup, and delivery delays. Some companies even had to rent additional generators, hire extra staff, or purchase fuel to maintain basic operations, further driving up production costs. Additionally, nearly 400 tree-fall incidents occurred across the state, severely affecting road traffic and logistics efficiency.
Notably, the wind speed of this storm reached a record high in the region since 1995. In addition to destroying electrical facilities, it also caused significant damage to agricultural crops. Although the rainfall helped alleviate the previous prolonged drought, the strong winds directly damaged plant foliage and unripe fruits, particularly impacting coffee trees during their flowering period, which may lead to reduced harvests this season.
It is worth highlighting that this extreme weather was mainly concentrated in São Paulo state, with relatively minor direct impact on other major coffee-producing regions. However, Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee-producing state, continues to face threats from high temperatures and drought. According to Brazil’s official agricultural statistics agency Conab, due to severely insufficient rainfall since August and only 27.16 mm of rain in October—far below the historical average of 1,300–2,000 mm per month—coupled with persistent high temperatures (reaching up to 38°C, with an average of 28.5°C), the growing environment for coffee crops has deteriorated.
The latest report from Conab shows that the coffee yield per hectare in Minas Gerais has declined by 1.9%, reaching only 28.8 bags, with overall production dropping by approximately 4 million bags compared to the previous season. Such an adjustment in production will have a non-negligible impact on the global coffee market supply balance.
Overall, Brazil’s recent extreme weather events—from the violent storms in São Paulo to the prolonged drought in Minas Gerais—have delivered a double blow to the world’s key coffee supply chain. For consumers, this may lead to challenges such as price volatility and supply instability in coffee beans; for producers and traders, staying informed about real-time climate and yield changes in each producing region will be key to formulating procurement and risk management strategies.
The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.
