Introduction:Ethiopia’s coffee exports in May exceeded 43,000 metric tons, more than doubling year-on-year, generating foreign exchange earnings of $209 million. The cumulative exports for the current fiscal year have already approached 253,000 metric tons, with the potential to set a new historical record. However, the escalating civil war in the Amhara region and disruptions to Red Sea shipping present significant challenges to the export prospects of this landlocked coffee powerhouse. This article takes you through the latest export figures, key market distributions, and potential risk factors.
According to the latest statistics released by the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority (ECTA), the country’s coffee exports in May 2024 reached a remarkable 43,481.02 metric tons, surpassing the target by 105% and generating $209.54 million in foreign exchange income—107% of the expected revenue. Compared to performance during the same period in the past two fiscal years, May exports showed a clear rebound, indicating that market demand remains robust.
Looking at the full fiscal year, over the 11-month period since July 2023, Ethiopia has cumulatively exported 252,466.98 metric tons of coffee, with total revenue of approximately $1.208 billion. Although it has not yet surpassed the previous fiscal year’s annual record of 240,000 metric tons and $1.3 billion, ECTA stated that if the current trend continues, foreign exchange earnings for this fiscal year could hit a new all-time high.
In terms of major export markets, Saudi Arabia remains in the top spot, closely followed by South Korea and the United States. Other countries in the top ten include Germany, Japan, Belgium, China, Sudan, the UAE, and Italy. Notably, import demand for Ethiopian coffee in the Chinese market continues to rise. In 2023, China imported approximately 154,000 metric tons of coffee, with the top five sources being Brazil, Ethiopia, Colombia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia, where Ethiopia firmly holds the position as the second-largest supplier.
In light of the strong export performance, the head of ECTA expressed gratitude to participants across the industry chain and optimistically noted that continued collaboration could lead to even greater achievements in the future. However, industry insiders remain cautious about the outlook, primarily due to the dual threats of civil war and shipping crises.
As early as August 2023, Ethiopia’s Amhara region fell into turmoil due to armed clashes between the Fano militia and federal government forces, and the conflict has yet to subside. According to local media reports, on May 30 of this year, the Ethiopian government deployed up to 90,000 additional troops to the region, with rumors of a large-scale military operation to be launched within the next ten days, aiming to completely eliminate local armed forces within two weeks.
As Ethiopia is a landlocked country, all imports and exports rely on the port of neighboring Djibouti. However, the main transportation routes currently lie near the edge of the conflict zone, and land access to the port is not only extremely risky but some sections may also be blocked due to fighting, severely impacting freight efficiency and costs, and even dragging down overall economic activity.
Even if goods can successfully reach the port, the ongoing Red Sea shipping crisis has not yet been resolved. Many shipping routes are threatened by conflict or piracy, leading to tight capacity, unstable schedules, and increased uncertainty for coffee exporters. Moreover, the progress of post-conflict reconstruction, the condition of damaged roads, and the direction of future political developments are all currently difficult to assess—factors that add further variables to coffee exports in the coming months.
Overall, despite the strong export figures for May, Ethiopia’s coffee industry is facing a dual squeeze from internal and external challenges. Industry confidence has been shaken, and the performance of the coming quarters will need to be closely monitored.
The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.
