Introduction:In March 2024, Brazil’s coffee exports approached 4.3 million bags, a year-on-year increase of nearly 40%, with Robusta showing an eye-catching surge of nearly sixfold to become the market focus. Rising international futures prices, coupled with reduced output in Asian producing regions and surging demand from Mexico, have driven this export boom. However, port delays and labor shortages bring uncertainties to the market outlook.

The global coffee market has recently experienced price volatility, with international coffee futures prices continuing to climb, particularly for Robusta, which has reached its highest level since October 1994. Spot prices in Vietnam and Brazil have also risen accordingly, prompting growers to actively sell inventory and prepare for the new season. Official data shows that Brazil’s total coffee exports in March 2024 reached an impressive 4.293 million bags (60 kg per bag), a significant year-on-year increase of 37.8%, demonstrating strong export momentum.

Notably, Robusta exports have seen an exceptional surge, with a year-on-year increase of nearly sixfold, making it the standout highlight of this month’s export data.This price rally is primarily driven by major Asian producing regions such as Indonesia, where El Niño has severely reduced Robusta output, coupled with rising domestic consumption, leading to a notable decline in beans available for export. Meanwhile, Mexico’s imports from Brazil have risen sharply, jumping to ninth place among Brazil’s top ten importers, with 317,360 bags imported in the first quarter of 2024 — a year-on-year surge of 721.5%, the vast majority of which are Robusta beans used for instant coffee production.

Within Brazil, spot coffee prices have also trended upward. Taking Minas Gerais, the largest coffee-producing region, as an example, the spot price for its Arabica “Good Cup” grade reached 1,125 Brazilian reais (approximately 1,606 CNY or 222 USD) per 60 kg bag, up 5.6% from last year’s 1,065 reais, nearly returning to the high-price levels seen in 2022 when extreme weather led to reduced output. As for Robusta, its spot price has surpassed the 1,000 BRL per 60 kg bag mark for the first time, reaching 1,025 BRL (about 1,463 CNY or 202 USD), setting a new historical record.

Rising prices have prompted coffee growers to accelerate inventory clearance, not only actively selling current stock but also pre-selling crops for the new season. Currently, the pre-sale price for Arabica to be delivered in September is between 1,105 and 1,115 BRL (about 1,580 CNY or 219 USD) per 60 kg bag. Growers are thus locking in profits, reflecting an optimistic outlook for future market trends.

However, Brazilian coffee exporters are also facing some challenges. The foremost issue is the severe transportation delays at the Port of Santos, with delay rates as high as 80%, significantly impacting export efficiency.Additionally, a nationwide dengue fever outbreak has led to a noticeable labor shortage. According to Brazil’s Ministry of Health, the number of dengue-related deaths in 2024 has accumulated to 1,116 cases, with another 1,807 under investigation, surpassing the annual totals of previous years. Nationwide infections have exceeded 2 million cases, 19% higher than the full-year record in 2023. In severely affected areas, labor shortages have emerged. Due to limited global vaccine supply, only one Japanese vaccine has been approved for use in Brazil, while locally developed vaccines are still pending approval, further extending the pandemic’s impact on economic activity.

The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.