Introduction:Colombia's coffee industry has recently been hit by extreme weather, with heavy rains causing disasters in the capital Bogotá and the department of Antioquia, among other areas, and even triggering volcanic activity, which has disrupted the fruit-setting period of coffee plants. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the actual impact of these disasters on production, harvesting, and exports, and interprets the market anxiety behind the surge in U.S. C-market coffee futures, helping readers stay updated on the latest developments in the global coffee supply chain.
Colombia’s coffee industry had shown strong performance in the first 10 months of this year, with both production and exports growing at double-digit rates. FNC (Colombia's National Federation of Coffee Growers) was once optimistic that the total annual output could reach 13 million bags. However, the country has recently experienced a series of extreme weather events, including heavy rains in Bogotá and surrounding areas, as well as a volcanic eruption in Antioquia, casting a shadow over what was once a promising harvest season.
Especially during the critical fruit-setting and harvesting stages of coffee trees, excessive rainfall not only easily triggers landslides but also causes a significant drop in coffee cherries, delays the harvesting schedule, and directly affects final output and market supply stability. Meanwhile, U.S. C-market coffee futures prices have surged again to 272.03 cents per pound, indicating that international market concerns about the supply of the new season continue to intensify.
According to official FNC statistics, Colombia’s coffee production in October 2024 reached 1.33 million bags (calculated per 60 kg bag), a 16% increase compared to the same period last year, and a significant 24% rise from September’s 1.07 million bags. The cumulative production from January to October this year totaled 10.4 million bags, marking an 18% year-on-year growth; the cumulative exports for the same period also reached 9.83 million bags, a 17% increase compared to the previous year. With such performance, FNC had predicted that the total annual output could potentially peak at 13 million bags.
However, the sudden change in weather has disrupted all of this. The capital Bogotá, the departments of Chocó and La Guajira were all severely hit by heavy rains, with the department of Antioquia experiencing a volcanic eruption, prompting the government to declare a national state of disaster. According to local media reports, multiple areas in Bogotá and the neighboring department of Cundinamarca suffered from flooding and landslides due to consecutive days of heavy rain, severely affecting the lives and transportation of thousands of residents.
The heavy rains also caused severe blockages in the capital’s sewer system, with several major roads turned into flooded messes, not only making travel difficult for ordinary citizens but also significantly disrupting cargo transportation, dealing a considerable blow to local economic activities. Colombia’s civil aviation authority further noted that due to ongoing thunderstorms and torrential rains, El Dorado International Airport has been temporarily closed, with the reopening time still to be announced.
Meteorologists have warned that over the next few days, rainfall may continue to intensify in multiple cities, including Cundinamarca, and gradually spread toward northern Colombia. This wave of heavy rains is expected to last until the end of November, and may even persist until mid-December, posing a serious challenge to coffee farms that are currently in a crucial growth period.
Meanwhile, the San José de Muratos volcano, located in the northwest of Antioquia, recently erupted unexpectedly. According to Colombia’s National Risk Management Department, approximately 200 residents have been urgently evacuated. Although many people fainted or were injured due to inhaling volcanic ash, fortunately, there have been no reports of fatalities. The volcanic eruption has affected the lives of over 100 families in the surrounding area, about 30% of whom are farming households. Multiple access roads have also been blocked by volcanic debris, severely hindering the transportation of supplies and rescue operations.
It is worth noting that coffee-growing regions in central Colombia typically have two harvest periods per year, corresponding to the rhythm of alternating rainy and dry seasons. Generally, from October to November, during the rainy season, it is a crucial period for coffee trees to flower and set fruit, while the harvest begins once the dry season arrives in December. However, this year’s abnormal heavy rains and thunderstorms are likely to disrupt this natural agricultural cycle.
Landslides triggered by heavy rains in mountainous areas not only damage soil structure, but continued excessive precipitation can also cause a large number of leaves and coffee cherries to fall, directly impacting per-unit yield. Coupled with the possibility that the rainy season may extend until mid-December, it is expected to further delay coffee harvesting operations and subsequent supply schedules.
In fact, Colombia’s coffee industry had already seen a slight decline in production between June and September this year due to widespread droughts and forest fires across South America, with output reaching just 1 million bags. Although the October data showed some recovery, the sudden heavy rain disaster in November is likely to put downward pressure on production once again.
Globally, although multiple major coffee-producing countries have reported increased export volumes, the continuous string of extreme weather events in recent times has raised deep concerns in the market about the overall supply stability of the new season. Against this backdrop, the international market regards U.S. C-market coffee futures as a key indicator, and the latest quoted price of these futures has soared to 272.03 cents per pound, approaching the annual high set in September this year, fully reflecting the worries of investors and traders about future supply.
The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.
