Introduction:As one of the world’s major producers of Robusta coffee, Indonesia has sent out unexpected signals in terms of both production and export volumes for the 2024/25 season. This article delves into how natural disasters and shifting climate patterns have impacted harvests in key growing regions, explores the real reasons behind the decline in export figures, and interprets how market supply-demand dynamics may potentially drive up prices. It also provides an introductory overview of the flavor characteristics of Indonesian Robusta.
The latest report on Indonesia’s coffee industry released by the USDA indicates that the country’s total coffee production for the 2024/25 season is expected to rebound to 10.9 million bags (69 kg per bag), with Robusta estimated to reach 9.5 million bags—far higher than the 6.3 million bags of the previous year. Arabica production is projected to remain at around 1.4 million bags, similar to recent years. In theory, this should be a sign of recovery for the producing regions, but the actual situation appears more complex.
Since the beginning of this year, several major coffee-growing regions in Indonesia have faced consecutive extreme weather challenges, including floods, landslides, and volcanic activity. For example, in May, Robusta coffee exports from Sumatra dropped by as much as 54% year-on-year, amounting to only 122,544 bags (60 kg per bag). When tallying the combined exports for April and May, the total volume reached 179,599 bags, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 51.34%, indicating a significant contraction in market supply.
Although the official report mentions a trend of improving weather conditions, Indonesia has been significantly affected by the El Niño phenomenon since 2023. Even though El Niño was declared to have ended around April, its subsequent neutral phase continues to disrupt the growing environment. More concerning is that experts have warned that the La Niña phenomenon may follow, bringing further uncertainties to coffee cultivation.
Looking back at 2023, dry weather noticeably disrupted the flowering period of coffee trees, directly leading to reduced yields. The rainy season on Sumatra Island was also delayed by nearly a month, with the large-scale harvest originally scheduled for April being postponed to May due to heavy rainfall—an important contributing factor to the sharp decline in early export volumes.
Meanwhile, domestic demand in Indonesia is gradually rising. Thanks to overall stable economic performance and the vibrancy of the food, beverage, and tourism industries, domestic coffee consumption has increased by approximately 10,000 bags. It is estimated that Indonesia’s total coffee consumption for the 2024/25 season will reach 4.8 million bags, which relatively compresses the volume of coffee available for export.
On the international market, Robusta coffee prices have remained high recently, mainly due to a significant reduction in production in Vietnam caused by severe drought, as well as Brazil reporting a potential decline in output of 8% to 14%. Against this backdrop, many buyers have turned to Indonesia for supply. Interestingly, however, local Indonesian exporters have chosen to slow down their selling and exporting pace. It is understood that this is because they assess that the global tight supply situation is unlikely to ease in the short term, and that coffee prices still have room to rise. As a result, they prefer to hold onto inventory temporarily, waiting for better selling prices to emerge.
For coffee enthusiasts who enjoy exploring diverse flavor profiles, Indonesian Robusta is known for its bold, rich character with unique earthy and herbal notes, making it highly suitable as a base for espresso or milk-based beverages. To further understand its flavor expression, you might consider trying products from brands that focus on curated global bean varieties, where you can experience the diverse possibilities of Robusta in terms of brewing parameters and pour over techniques.
The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.
