Introduction:Recently, the World Meteorological Organization predicted that the La Niña phenomenon has a high probability of making a strong comeback in the second half of the year, which will trigger a chain reaction on global agricultural production and commodity markets. Among them, coffee—as a climate-sensitive crop—has drawn significant attention regarding its price trends. This article delves into the potential impact of La Niña on Brazil’s Robusta coffee production, explores how it may gradually challenge Vietnam’s global leading position, and provides insights into possible future price fluctuations and supply chain challenges.
According to the latest climate forecast released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the El Niño phenomenon—which once triggered extreme high temperatures globally—is gradually weakening, while the La Niña phenomenon may re-emerge later this year. Meteorologists point out that the arrival of La Niña will bring climate effects opposite to those of El Niño, significantly affecting crop growth environments and international agricultural product markets.
Specifically, between July and September, the probability of La Niña occurring is expected to rise to 60%, and by August to November, this probability may further climb to 70%. The WMO emphasizes that even after El Niño ends, due to persistently high concentrations of greenhouse gases caused by human activities, the trend of global warming will continue, and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the future may further intensify.
Geographically, La Niña typically brings more abundant rainfall to regions such as Australia, West Africa, and parts of Asia, which is beneficial for the growth of crops like wheat, palm oil, cocoa, and coffee. However, in the Americas—especially Brazil’s major agricultural belts, including the southern regions that produce soybeans, coffee, and corn—it can easily lead to drought threats, thereby affecting both yield per unit area and total output.
Currently, the international prices of various major agricultural commodities—including coffee, cocoa, and wheat—have remained at high levels for some time. If the negative impacts of La Niña on key producing areas intensify in the second half of the year, the market generally expects the prices of related agricultural products to face further upside risks, which is of significant importance to both consumers and traders.
Against this backdrop, Brazil, a globally important coffee-producing country, is actively adjusting its coffee industry structure. In recent years, the country has significantly expanded the planting area and production capacity of Robusta coffee. According to official and industry estimates, Brazil’s Robusta coffee production in 2024 is expected to reach 21 million bags (calculated at 60 kilograms per bag), second only to Vietnam’s 24 million bags. Notably, Brazil has the potential to reverse this production ranking in the 2027/28 season, officially surpassing Vietnam to become the world’s largest supplier of Robusta coffee.
Currently, Brazil’s traditional Robusta-producing regions, such as Minas Gerais, have carried out a series of planting technique improvements and trials tailored to local soil and climate conditions. Under ideal cultivation environments, some areas can achieve Robusta coffee yields of up to 120 bags per hectare, demonstrating considerable production potential.
In addition to the direct impact of climate on crops, La Niña may also indirectly affect global trade and logistics chains. For example, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has incorporated the variables potentially brought by La Niña into its predictive models when analyzing this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, estimating that there may be 4 to 7 hurricane activities in the Atlantic Ocean between June and November.
It is worth noting that the Gulf of Mexico, a common landing area for hurricanes, is also an important energy production base in the United States. Local offshore crude oil production accounts for approximately 17% of the national total, while refining capacity exceeds 45% of the nation’s total. Once hurricanes strike and damage related infrastructure, it could not only cause disruptions in crude oil supply but also further drive up international crude oil prices, along with increasing fuel costs and transportation fees in the shipping industry.
For the vast community of coffee enthusiasts and industry professionals, keeping abreast of climate dynamics and price trends in major producing areas is crucial. Especially as Robusta coffee gradually plays a more significant role in the global market, its price and supply stability will directly influence the cost structures of instant coffee, ready-to-drink beverages, and even certain specialty coffee products. It is recommended that consumers pay moderate attention to news about Brazil’s Robusta harvest seasons and market changes when purchasing coffee beans, while also keeping an eye on the potential disruptions La Niña may cause to global logistics and supply chains, in order to better plan procurement and stockpiling strategies.
The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.
