Introduction:In recent years, African coffee-growing regions have faced unprecedented dual pressures — extreme weather triggered by the El Niño phenomenon has disrupted coffee production schedules, while the European Union’s newly introduced deforestation regulation (EUDR) has made import procedures more complex and stringent. This article delves into how these changes are impacting major African coffee-exporting countries, particularly Uganda and Ethiopia, and explores the potential effects of these challenges on the global coffee supply chain and market prices.

The global coffee industry is undergoing dramatic shifts. The extreme weather brought by the El Niño phenomenon has significantly affected coffee cultivation in many parts of Central and South America as well as Africa. Following the major producing regions in Central and South America, African coffee-producing nations have not been spared, with Uganda’s situation being particularly noteworthy.

It is understood that due to frequent heavy rains in Uganda recently, not only has the coffee harvesting schedule been delayed, but the drying process of coffee beans has also been disrupted, leading to an overall decline in production capacity. Official data shows that Uganda’s coffee exports in November decreased sharply compared to the same period last year.4.8%The total export volume for that month was425,525 bags(each bag weighing 60 kilograms). As the largest coffee exporter in Africa, fluctuations in Uganda’s production often directly impact the global market supply balance.

Meanwhile, another major African coffee-producing country — Ethiopia — is also facing significant challenges. Ethiopia has approximately5 million farmerswhose livelihoods depend on coffee, and coffee exports are a crucial source of foreign exchange income, generating nearly$1 billionannually. However, with the EU’s formal implementation of the deforestation regulation (EUDR), local smallholder farmers are facing unprecedented difficulties.

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) explicitly stipulates that all commodities such as coffee and cocoa sold in the EU market must be accompanied by complete origin traceability information and undergo rigorous due diligence to confirm that their production processes did not involve deforestation or forest degradation. Violations will result in severe penalties for the companies involved, including substantial fines or even bans from entering the market.

To comply with this regulation, many European importers have had to reassess their supply chains, leading to reduced purchases from African smallholders. The reason is that obtaining complete and compliant origin and environmental data from smallholders is both costly and difficult in practice, which has gradually caused their coffee beans to lose favor with international buyers.

Industry experts point out that this trend will not only affect the livelihoods of African coffee farmers but may also indirectly drive up retail coffee prices in the EU market. At the same time, some observers are concerned that if smallholders are excluded from the supply chain due to inability to comply with the regulations, it could actually weaken the effectiveness of global forest conservation policies.

An unnamed senior executive at an importing company stated that many companies have already procured certified coffee beans in advance to ensure they can continue supplying the EU market in 2025. However, he also admitted that until the final details of the EUDR are fully clarified, businesses can only cautiously choose sources with lower compliance risks, which puts unprecedented survival pressure on small and medium-sized farmers in countries like Ethiopia.

Overall, the African coffee industry is caught between natural disasters and human-made policies. It must not only cope with production instability caused by El Niño but also find a way forward amid increasingly strict international trade regulations. How to ensure sustainable development while safeguarding the livelihoods of millions of coffee farmers and the stability of the global coffee supply will be a critical issue the industry must collectively address in the coming years.

The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.